Going to start a series of posts today all mapping out my thoughts on the finales to most of the big european leagues around, Starting with La Liga.

Most people unless they have been living under a rock will know that this years title race is between the “El Super Classico” teams of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Manuel Pellegrini trying to save Madrid blushes and win a league title before he gets sacked, however Pep Guardiola is trying for the “Double Double” can he win the league and Champions League 2 years running in only his 2nd year in management.

Saturday saw Barcelona roll into the Bernabeu armed with the Greatest Players playing today in Leo Messi and walked away with all 3 points, this seasons sensationl players Messi and Pedro with the goals, and put Barca in the driving seat, still 7 games left and a lot of time for both teams to gain more points, with a 3 point lead this is there run in.

14th Apr – Deportivo (H)
17th Apr – Espanyol (A)
25th April – Xerez (H)
 2nd May – Villarreal (A)
 5th May – Tenerife (H)
9th May – Sevilla (A)
16th May – Valladolid (H)

A very interesting few games left, at home I would put a substantial amount of money on Barca winning all 4 games without complication, it’s the away games that make things interesting, a Catalan Derby, trips to El Madrigal and the Sanchez Pizjuan could easily turn into 3 defeats, especially with Sevilla and Villarreal in the tussle for European places. Real Madrids run in on paper looks the easier of the two, only Valencia and Mallorca at the top half to play, however Malaga away on the last day could be a match to decide the title and relegation battles. If Barcelona slip up, Madrid have a run of games where they should pick up points, Valencia’s away record has been very poor, Almeria, Zaragoza an Osasuna could have nothing to play for.

15th April – Almeria (A)
18th April – Valencia (H)
25th April – Zaragoza (A)
2nd May – Osasuna (H)
5th May – Mallorca (A)
9th May – Athletic Bilbao (H)
16th May – Malaga (A)

You also need to factor in that Barcelona have 2 more Champions League games to play and will be tough games against Mourinho’s Inter Milan, Barcelona have always been “my team” when choosing between them or Madrid, but I can see Real sneaking in to take the title, however with Lionel Messi playing the way he is, it would be hard to bet against him scoring the goals to lift Barcelona to that 20th Spanish League title.

The third automatic Champions League place see’s Valencia in the drivers seat 5 points ahead of Sevilla and Mallorca all 3 teams still have to face one of the Big Two, they don’t have to face each other again however they do come up against teams also fighting for the Europa League places, Valencia have Athletic Bilbao at Home and Villarreal Away, Sevilla have to travel to Getafe and Mallorca will go to the San Mames in Bilbao tough games against Bilbao for those team but also tough for Bilbao in their chase for a Europa League spot, with 5th and 6th place going into the Europa League Getafe and Villarreal find themselves 2 and 4 points respectively off that 6th spot.

Villarreal have the toughes run in, big game against Getafe then home stands against Barcelona and Valencia, Getafe have Sevilla visiting them, nearly impossible to predict, I will have a try.

Looking at the remaining fixtures and trying to work out how each game will go (if I could predict this I’d be rich) this is how I think the table will finish, and unfortunately for Villarreal and Getafe it’s how you are for the 6 teams involved

3. Valencia 38 games 69 points – Champions League
4.Sevilla 38 games 64 points – Champions League Qual.
5.Mallorca 38 games 62 points – Europa League Playoff
6. Athletic Bilbao 38 games 59 points – Europa League 3rd round
———————————————-
7.Villarreal 38 games 58 points
8.Getafe 38 games 58 points

So If (Big if) I’m correct Villarreal and Getafe will be close but no cigar, Valencia and Sevilla will be in the Champions League, and I might put a cheeky bet on Real Madrid winning the title.

Next…………Serie A

A lot of the discussions at work this week have got me thinking, What makes a great striker? After a few conversations about Arsenal’s Niclas Bendtner to varying opinions it got me thinking, how do you class a great striker, then my mind wandered to what players right now would be classed as GREAT, does the conventional idea of the striker still exist or has the role changed to suit the modern game.

I have also had the opinion that to be class as a great striker there are two targets you have to reach, for your club you must average a goal every two games, and for your country 1 in 3 is fine, is that enough of a system to define greatness, right now I am questioning my own system in this Wikipedia driven time, it is far too easy to pick a player, lets go with Adrian Mutu (picked by a colleague) a player with a very chequered past, has played for numerous teams, first came to my attention playing for Verona, then the 21 year old managed 16 goals in 57 games roughly 1 in 4. Fast forward now to his time in Florence, 50 goals in 91 games for Fiorentina better than 1 in 2, in his whole club career he’s played 329 games and scored 130 goals that’s 0.40 goals per game, a pretty good record 29 goals in 67 games, this would put Mutu in my bracket as a great striker, however I wouldn’t put him in the GREAT bracket, he’s a talented player that’s no doubt, however greatness is not a word I would choose to describe him.

My quick method is clearly flawed then players can hit these targets and still not be seen as the greatest strikers around, growing up the first strikers I was drawn to were the likes of Jurgen Klinsmann , Gary Lineker , and Romario , then getting older Ronaldo , Gabriel Batistuta and going to watch Henrik Larsson for Celtic all 6 players to me can be classed as GREAT, the one thought that combines all of these players is finishing, given 5 chances they would score at least 4, and could conjeur a goal out of less than half a chance, how many of the modern day players can you say the same for.

Throughout Europe these days the players scoring the goals aren’t the out and out strikers, players like Leo Messi , Cristiano Ronaldo , Andrei Arshavin more of a support striker or winger, these players over the past few years have scored a lot of goals between them, Ronaldo’s 42 goals in the Premiership is unheard of for someone playing as a winger, I think the game is changing and allowing these type of players to be more dangerous in or around the goal area, and on first thought how many penalty box strikers can you think of playing at the top end of European football.

The modern day strikers the likes of Drogba , Eto’o , Villa , Torres , Tevez , Luis Fabiano , all 6 players spanning the global game all very prone to missing chances, I would say out of 5 chances, they would score 2 or 3, most Liverpool fans will be upset with me including Torres in that bracket however before his Liverpool days Torres never scored more than 20 goals in a La Liga season, his first season in England really was his break out year, I have managed to dig up some OPTA stats from May 2008 and from Fernando’s 96 shots on goal he scored 33 goals, this proves my thinking, works out in 5 attempts on goal Torres would score 1.7 goals.

Stats can do a lot to prove and disprove various thoughts, I’m sure I could have found some stats that make an player the greatest striker ever, the hard truth is stats are only worth the paper they are printed on. The real way to judge a players ability is to watch them over a vast number of games and then decide on the quality of the player, usually once his career ends, 2 examples spring to mind almost instantly, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Robbie Fowler , Roman came to England after an impressive record in the Russian League, however at Euro 2008 for Russia his performance weren’t as good as previous season had promised, so Spurs and English fans didn’t think much to the latest recruit to White Hart Lane and then a few weeks into the season he was already classed as a dud, I have had the privlidge of watching quite a few Spartak Moscow games 2/3 years before his move, and also the Champions League qualifier against Celtic in 2007, Roman was a constant threat, scoring at Celtic Park, a very opportunist goal pouncing on a defensive mistake, he looked a very talented player, this made me not jump on the bandwagon of doubters after his slow start to his English career which is now showing signs of promise a goal machine of late, he is causing the normal fan to think twice on his opinion and hopefully can keep his place at the London club.

The other example is Robbie Fowler , started out as a 17 year old wonderkid for Liverpool, scoring goals by the bucketload the world was his oyster 173 goals in 236 games for Liverpool is a fantastic record, I still remember the TV pundits swooning over his ability quotes like “If he’s this good at 21, imagine how good he’ll be at 28 in his prime”. The hard truth is when he was 28 he was playing for Manchester City and managed 10 goals that season, only 1 goal the season after, Robbie’s career was plagued with injury from 2002 onwards, and after leaving Liverpool in 2001 he never really reached the same level of success, it is impossible to forget the great results he had at Anfield at the time he was classed as one of the greatest finishers in England, but outside of Anfield the same cannot be said, and at International level again his record is less than impressive, with Robbie for 8 years you could easily class him as a GREAT striker, but after this, Average is the best way to describe him, so how do you classify his career as a whole, impossible really.

Personally I try not to define a player by their “Stats” but in what I’ve seen of the player, a striker could easily have  a 1 in 2 record but when you watch them they need 4 or 5 chances to get 1 goal, or some else with the same record however that players had half as many chances, I know which players I would have in my side, in this world of Sky Sports News and super fast broadband it is very easy for people to take opinions from what they hear around them without judging  the player on what they actually see, this brings me back to the first point.

Nicklas Bendtner scored a hat-trick last night in the Champions League game against Porto, what could be classed as 2 tap in and a penalty, but still 3 goals, his record in Europe this season is 4 goals in 3 games, now if that’s all you look at, then yeah Bendtner looks fantastic, however if you  have actually watched the game or the game  against Burnley, you would not think he was as impressive as his record, the boy is still young, only 22 so he still has time to improve and become a great striker, right now though, no matter what the stats say I cannot put him in this group.